Guyana’s non-oil economy is expected to grow by an average of about seven per cent annually over the next five years, as the country continues to invest heavily in infrastructure, human capital and economic diversification, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its concluding statement following the 2026 Article IV Mission, the IMF said Guyana’s overall economic outlook remains “highly favourable,” with oil production expected to continue expanding and the non-oil economy projected to remain strong.
“The economic outlook remains highly favourable,” the IMF said, noting that “the non-oil economy is projected to grow by about 7 per cent on average over the next five years as the government continues its ambitious plans to address infrastructure and developmental needs.”
The projection is significant for Guyana’s business community, as it points to continued opportunities outside of the oil sector, including in construction, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, logistics, services, finance and other areas tied to the country’s rapid development.
According to the IMF, Guyana’s non-oil economy grew by about 14 per cent in 2025, with broad-based activity continuing across several sectors. Construction remained the largest driver, while agriculture, mining and manufacturing also contributed meaningfully.
The Fund said Guyana’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by more than 19 per cent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 per cent during 2023 and 2024. Oil production also exceeded expectations, surpassing 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, a 35 per cent increase in one year.
However, the IMF’s assessment makes clear that Guyana’s growth story is not being driven by oil alone.
It said large investments in physical and human capital are supporting non-oil growth and improving outcomes, particularly in health and education. The Fund also pointed to the Government’s five-year development plan, built on the Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030, which it said maintains a focus on diversification, resilience and sustainability.
The IMF also said the country’s external position is expected to remain strong over the medium term as higher oil production supports export earnings and fiscal revenues. As oil operators complete cost recovery, a larger share of oil revenues is expected to flow to Guyana through the Natural Resource Fund.
The Fund said continued accumulation of oil revenue in the NRF is helping Guyana build external and fiscal buffers, while supporting long-term development priorities.
For businesses, the IMF’s projection of sustained non-oil growth signals continued demand for goods, services, labour, financing and investment across the real economy.
The IMF also noted that the Local Content framework continues to support private-sector development, while higher personal income tax thresholds are helping to encourage labour force participation.
It added that ongoing initiatives to boost agricultural production and reduce regional food import dependence will support export diversification and enhance food security.
The Fund, however, said reforms to address labour shortages should continue, including efforts to strengthen skills and better align the workforce with the needs of a rapidly expanding economy.
While the IMF pointed to risks such as oil price volatility, adverse climate shocks and possible overheating pressures, its overall assessment remained positive.
With non-oil growth expected to remain strong over the next five years, Guyana’s private sector is being positioned to play a major role in the country’s next phase of expansion.
